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Real quick, I created a new category, Rant(Politics), because no post ever labeled politics I see is not a rant to someone.

First read this great letter from Dr. Steven Horwitz. When I read this there was nothing new I didn’t already know. I knew the data on incentives put in place by Congress to increase home ownership and how this caused the bubble that we are all complaining about now.

These incentives are always the same, good intentions, it’s the unseen incentives that come out latter, that are the problems. It is in my study of history of what has and has not been accompleshed by government that I know fully agree with the statement:

My point is that hoping that having the “right people” in power will avoid these problems is both naive and historically blind

So my focus turned to what will history be going forward? This is the sad part. History shows that we will (as a country) continue to try to improve our selves via public collective action (Government). While history (damn history) proves this to be an awful approach, we will continue to do this, always have always will. The insight I had was, we are ofcourse going to focus on the things we care about most. These are the basic needs of life, food, shelter, and clothing. Well no one argues that government makes better closes or food. We are lucky to be developed beyond that point. What about things like water, health care? Government already had a monopoly on water in domestic populous areas, and the results are not that bad (so far, I expect big problems in CA, NM, and NV, in the next few decades). Health care though is something we are all talking about. Now I know government already has jacked up health care pretty bad (via taxes and regulation of providers). I will not go into this.

Well that was it really, just that the last place (in my understanding) where we want government screwing things up, we are going to ask for it, on the things we care about most. It is not going to be pretty. This is not a huge insight, but I tend to generalize things to much.

The glad future, is that how on earth if government is so bad did we get this far? We are much better off than we were just a generation ago. I think it is because people are good. Even with the weight government has, spending 50% of GDP still does not give it 50% power over our lives, and the small grouping of people with specific information can make a better outcome even after feeding their families. The history of the United States has been this so far. So I expect to make good stock market returns, I expect there to be another Apple, Google, and Wal-Mart. People are just to smart and clever.

While my rosy picture may not be 100% probable, history also gives us the USSR, and many other countries that make it impossible for people better their own lot. We could do this here also. I just think we will continue to have better outcomes and organization than the rest of the world. Just because we have a history of it.

History is important, it is the only data we have for judging outcomes. And trust me for many of the things proposed by government are not new, and have been tried before.